Entries this day: Listening_to_Guns_and_Butter Watching_Zeitgeist_Addendum

Listening to Guns and Butter

10:19am JST Friday 16 January 2009 (day 14177)

I'm listening to the Guns and Butter episode "Understanding the Next Phase of the Global Systemic Crisis" from 10 December 2008. I'll summarize the points section by section (from memory for the first section):

1. first 15 minutes:
   1. Interviewing Franck Biancheri. Visit websites at www.leap2020.eu and www.europe2020.org.
   2. Bretton Woods system started in 1944
   3. US was the world standard currency, with 50% of world currency value
   4. US went off gold standard in 1971
   5. US currency is now 10 to 15% of the world currency value
   6. No single national currency can serve as the reserve currency because global economy is too complex
2. second 15 minutes:
   1. most recent US recession started in 2007
   2. When the US economy is affected, closely tied countries are too
   3. Biggest problem with US economy is military spending
   4. 25% of Americans are connected to military personally or via family members
   5. Military is only remaining pillar in the US
   6. Military employment is up; others are down
   7. unemployment is increasing, will be destabilizing by end of 2009
   8. Military will be asked to stabilize this.
   9. Military are already stationed domestically in US.
   10. Next depression will be worse than 1930s.
3. next 15 minutes:
   1. In February / March the US will default on its loans
   2. There will be no "Obama Miracle"
   3. The debt in the past months will be greater than can be conceivably repaid
   4. US will have to issue bonds payable in different currencies (as it did in late 1970s)
   5. September - December was the detonation of the crisis
   6. The fallout of the crisis will last years
   7. Ideas that the stimulus package will fix the economy in a few months are false
   8. Other big debt is social security / long-term unemployment
   9. Obama has a perfect plan, but it's too late
   10. key players in the economic plan caused it in the first place
4. last 15 minutes:
   1. Economy will crash in summer 2009
   2. there are many ways this could happen
   3. US defaulting on its debt will cause a run from dollars
   4. (hurting some countries which have invested in dollars)
   5. Outcome of crisis has five key components:
      1. 50% decrease in standard of living for middle class by 2011
      2. collapse of significant public services
      3. Nationalization of capital-based pensions
      4. Massive unemployment at least 20%
      5. substantial devaluation of US dollar
   6. US will not be able to pay pension to its old people
   7. Dollar will still be used within the US, but not useful outside US

Watching Zeitgeist Addendum

10:21pm JST Friday 16 January 2009 (day 14177)

Watching Zeitgeist Addendum now. I agree with the description of finance in the world, but I'm not quite sure I agree with the ideas about technology.

But, in the end, I'm thinkin' I will follow the suggestions of not doing business with big banks, military, etc.